Jorge Velasco-Hernandez

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  Qualitative estimation of time-varying contact rates in uncertain epidemics
  Jorge Velasco-Hernandez

  We will inevitably face new epidemics where the lack of long time-series data and the uncertainty about the outbreak dynamics make dicult to obtain quantitative predictions. Here we present an algorithm to qualitatively infer time-varying contact rates from short time-series data, letting us predict the start, relative magnitude and decline of epidemic outbreaks. Using real time-series data of measles, dengue, and the current zika outbreak, we demonstrate our algorithm can outperform existing algorithms based on estimating reproductive numbers.